Tools/Fair Odds Calculator

Fair Odds Calculator

Enter the Pinnacle odds for the match and the odds offered by your target bookmaker. The tool computes the margin-free odds and tells you whether you have a mathematical edge.

Market type

1. Pinnacle odds (reference market)

Outcome 1

Pinnacle odds

Outcome 2

Pinnacle odds

Pinnacle payout rate (reference)98.61%

2. Outcome you are betting on

3. Odds offered by your target bookmaker

Target odds: Outcome 1

The odds you want to bet on

Payout check (target odds + opposite Pinnacle odds)

100.86%≥ 99% ✓

4. Stake

Stake (€)

To calculate the expected profit in euros

VALUE BET ✓

All conditions are met. This bet has a mathematical edge.

2.080

Fair odds

+3.36%

+€3.36

EV on €100

98.61%

Pinnacle payout

Validation criteria

EV > 1%Calculated EV: +3.36%

Payout check ≥ 99%Calculated payout: 100.86%

Calculation details

Pinnacle payout= 1 / (1/2.05 + 1/1.90)→ 98.6076%

Fair odds= (2 × 2.05) / (2 − 2.05 × (1/0.9861 − 1))→ 2.0801

EV= (2.15 / 2.0801) − 1→ 3.3601%

Payout check= 1 / (1/2.15 + 1/1.90)→ 100.8642%

How does the calculation work?

Why Pinnacle as the reference?

Pinnacle is the most efficient bookmaker in the world: it accepts winning bettors and does not limit accounts. Its odds therefore reflect the true probability of events better than any other bookmaker's. We use them as the starting point to extract the true probability of an event.

The payout rate

Every bookmaker builds a margin into its odds. The payout rate measures that margin: a 97% payout means that for every €100 staked, the bookmaker pays back €97 on average. We compute Pinnacle's payout from its two odds to measure the efficiency of the reference market.

Payout = 1 / (1/Odds outcome 1 + 1/Odds outcome 2)

The fair odds, margin-free

Pinnacle's payout lets us redistribute the margin proportionally across the two outcomes. This yields the fair odds: what the odds should be worth if no bookmaker took a commission. It is our absolute reference.

Fair odds = (2 × Pinnacle odds) / (2 − Pinnacle odds × (1/Payout − 1))

Detecting the value

We compare the odds offered by your target bookmaker to the fair odds. If they are higher, you have a mathematical edge (positive EV). The EV expresses that edge as a percentage of your stake.

EV = (Target odds / Fair odds) − 1

The payout check: cross-market verification

A highly efficient market (payout ≥ 99%) guarantees that the odds are not artificially inflated. We compute this payout cross-market: your target bookmaker's odds on the outcome you bet on, combined with Pinnacle's odds on the opposite outcome. If the result exceeds 99%, the market is reliable.

Payout check = 1 / (Target odds + Opposite Pinnacle odds) (in implied probabilities)

A bet is validated as a Value Bet only if both of these conditions are met:

EV > 1%

Positive expected value

The offered odds exceed the fair odds by at least 1%

Payout check ≥ 99%

Efficient market

The target odds + opposite Pinnacle combination is consistent

Frequently asked questions

What are fair odds?

The odds stripped of the bookmaker's margin: they reflect the true probability of an event. If the odds a bookmaker offers exceed the fair odds, the bet has a positive expected value (+EV).

How do you calculate fair odds?

You start from the Pinnacle odds, measure the market margin through the payout, then redistribute that margin across the outcomes. The calculator applies the formula automatically from two or three odds.

Why use Pinnacle odds as the reference?

Pinnacle accepts winning bettors and posts some of the lowest margins on the market: its odds are considered the closest to true probabilities. It is the reference of professional bettors.

What is a value bet?

A bet whose odds are higher than the fair odds: the mathematical expectation is positive. The calculator validates two criteria: an EV above 1% and a control payout of at least 99%.

Is the calculator free?

Yes, free and with no account: the whole calculation runs in your browser and no data is sent.