Fair Odds Calculator
Enter the Pinnacle odds for the match and the odds offered by your target bookmaker. The tool computes the margin-free odds and tells you whether you have a mathematical edge.
Market type
1. Pinnacle odds (reference market)
Pinnacle odds
Pinnacle odds
2. Outcome you are betting on
3. Odds offered by your target bookmaker
The odds you want to bet on
4. Stake
To calculate the expected profit in euros
Validation criteria
Calculation details
How does the calculation work?
Why Pinnacle as the reference?
Pinnacle is the most efficient bookmaker in the world: it accepts winning bettors and does not limit accounts. Its odds therefore reflect the true probability of events better than any other bookmaker's. We use them as the starting point to extract the true probability of an event.
The payout rate
Every bookmaker builds a margin into its odds. The payout rate measures that margin: a 97% payout means that for every €100 staked, the bookmaker pays back €97 on average. We compute Pinnacle's payout from its two odds to measure the efficiency of the reference market.
The fair odds — margin-free
Pinnacle's payout lets us redistribute the margin proportionally across the two outcomes. This yields the fair odds: what the odds should be worth if no bookmaker took a commission. It is our absolute reference.
Detecting the value
We compare the odds offered by your target bookmaker to the fair odds. If they are higher, you have a mathematical edge (positive EV). The EV expresses that edge as a percentage of your stake.
The payout check — cross-market verification
A highly efficient market (payout ≥ 99%) guarantees that the odds are not artificially inflated. We compute this payout cross-market: your target bookmaker's odds on the outcome you bet on, combined with Pinnacle's odds on the opposite outcome. If the result exceeds 99%, the market is reliable.
A bet is validated as a Value Bet only if both of these conditions are met: